Review Category : Poltics

POLL: History’s a Positive for Clinton; Not So for Bush or Romney

JP Yim/Getty Images(NEW YORK) — Hillary Clinton’s potential place in history and her husband’s tenure in the White House boost her presidential prospects, while Jeb Bush’s political legacy and Mitt Romney’s 2012 run for the office are negatives, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds.

Clinton leads both in hypothetical head-to-head matchups at this early stage — as well as Rand Paul, Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee alike.

The national survey finds 53 to 56 percent support for Clinton among registered voters against each of these potential Republican candidates, while they get 39 to 41 percent. One reason is that Clinton is stronger in her political base, given the far more fragmented nature of the current GOP field.

Further, registered voters by a 13-point margin say the fact that Clinton would be the first female president makes them more likely rather than less likely to support her. Her husband having served as president is another net positive, by an 8-point margin.

Those results stand in contrast to Bush’s and Romney’s backgrounds. The fact that his brother and father held the office is a net negative for Bush by a broad 25 percentage points; a third of registered voters say it makes them less likely to support him for president. And Romney’s having run as the Republican nominee three years ago is a 14-point net negative for him.

Most registered voters, 57 to 65 percent, say none of these items would be a factor in their vote. But a presidential election is a game of margins, making these views potentially important in the campaign ahead.

THE FIELD – The poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds several reasons that Clinton leads all five potential GOP candidates tested:

  • She’s stronger in her base, backed by nine in 10 or more Democrats who are registered to vote, as well as by at least eight in 10 liberals and about six in 10 moderates.
  • As with Barack Obama, the recovery helps Clinton. About three-quarters of registered voters who rate the economy positively support her, and she leads overwhelmingly among those who say they’ve gained ground financially under Obama’s presidency. But she also leads, by 16 to 20 points, among those whose finances have just held steady.
  • Clinton has a strong advantage among those who see income inequality as a major problem, and she runs essentially evenly vs. these potential Republican nominees among those who think it’s a problem, but not a major one. She trails only among those who don’t think the income gap is a problem — just 16 percent of registered voters.
  • Women favor Clinton by 20- to 24-point margins, men by non-significant 2- to 7-point margins. She’s also strong among racial and ethnic minorities, adults under 40 and lower-income voters.

The potential GOP candidates may be hamstrung by their intramural battle ahead; core Republican support likely will coalesce around the ultimate nominee. For the moment, those tested against Clinton in this survey win support from 76 to 81 percent of Republican registered voters and about six in 10 conservatives (including 67 to 73 percent of strong conservatives).

Each also has the support of half of white voters overall, far fewer than a GOP nominee needs to prevail, given whites’ shrinking share of the country’s population. (Romney won 59 percent of whites and lost the 2012 election nonetheless.)

In an example of the comparatively unsettled GOP base, Huckabee and Bush both hold more than 40-point leads over Clinton among evangelical white Protestants, but that eases to 27- and 32-point leads in this group for Christie and Romney, respectively.

Paul, for his part, runs essentially evenly with Clinton among college-educated registered voters, while Christie, Bush, Huckabee and Romney trail her by 12- to 17-point margins in this group. But there are few other differences, suggesting that partisanship, rather than individual candidate assessments, is playing the starring role in current choices.

Early matchups such as these are not predictive; campaigns matter, as Clinton demonstrated in 2008, and an ultimate double-digit margin is virtually unthinkable given the country’s close political divisions. That said, Obama vs. Romney stood at a 49-45 percent in their earliest ABC/Post matchup, in April 2011. Clinton today leads Romney by 15.

METHODOLOGY –
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Jan. 12-15, 2015, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults, including 843 registered voters. Results have margins of sampling error of 3.5 and 4 points for the general population and registered voters, respectively, including design effect. Partisan divisions are 30-24-37 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents among the general population, 33-26-33 percent among registered voters.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.

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Obama Takes His Message of Economic Resurgence to Idaho

Official White House Photo by Pete Souza(BOISE, Idaho) — President Obama resumed his barnstorming tour of the U.S. to promote his second-term agenda with a visit to Boise, Idaho, Wednesday.

During his half-hour speech on the campus of Boise State University, the president repeated many of the same themes from his State of the Union address the night before.

Obama spoke of the nation’s economic resurgence leading to the best growth in a decade despite critics fighting his policies at every turn.

To drive his point home, the president peppered his remarks with football analogies before an appreciative audience that included, “The verdict is clear. The ruling on the field stands. Middle class economics works. Expanding opportunity works.”

Beforehand, Obama toured Boise State’s New Product Development Lab to view products local industries and entrepreneurs develop and market with the assistance of students.

This was Obama’s first visit to Idaho as president, meaning he’s made speeches in 47 states. He has yet set to foot in South Carolina, Utah and South Dakota during his six years in office.

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Senate Suffering Network Outage Including Email

Credit: Architect of the Capitol(WASHINGTON) — The Senate email system is down, the Senate Sergeant at Arms Frank Larkin said Wednesday night.

Larkin told ABC News at about 7 p.m. Wednesday that “the Senate is currently experiencing a network outage, including email and mobility.” He said that technicians were working on the issue.

At least one Senate office said that the system went down at about 5:30 p.m. Wednesday.

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Boehner Not ‘Poking Anyone in the Eye’ by Inviting Israeli PM to Speak to Congress

ABC News(WASHINGTON) — House Speaker John Boehner said on Wednesday that he didn’t think he was “poking anyone in the eye” when he invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to speak in front of Congress next month.

Earlier in the day, the Ohio Republican said in a statement that he would ask Netanyahu “to address Congress on the grave threats radical Islam and Iran pose to our security and way of life.” Boehner’s decision to invite Netanyahu was based in part on the fact that “Americans and Israelis have always stood together in shared cause and common ideals, and now we must rise to the moment again.”

White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest had no comment on the invitation, saying that judgment would wait until the White House spoke with the prime minister. Typically, Earnest suggested, the leader of one country would contact the leader of another before traveling. This invitation, he added, “seems to be a departure from that protocol.”

Boehner admitted that he didn’t consult the White House on the invitation. “The Congress can make this decision on its own,” the speaker said. “I don’t believe I’m poking anyone in the eye.”

“There is a serious threat that exists in the world and the president, last night, kind of papered over it,” Boehner claimed. “The fact is, is there needs to be a more serious conversation in America about how serious the threat is from radical Islamic jihadists and the threat posed by Iran.”

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Mitt Romney to Give Commencement Address at Jacksonville University in April

ABC/ DONNA SVENNEVIK(JACKSONVILLE, Fla.) — Jacksonville University announced on Wednesday that former Senator and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney will deliver its spring commencement address this April.

“We are delighted to offer our students the opportunity to hear from one of the leading figures in industry and public service of the past three decades,” university President Tim Cost said in a statement. “Gov. Romney has established an outstanding track record of accomplishments, and is sure to offer insight and inspiration to our campus community.”

Commencement is scheduled for April 25.

Romney has said he is considering another presidential campaign in 2016.

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Mitt Romney to Give Commencement Address at Jacksonville University in April

ABC/ DONNA SVENNEVIK(JACKSONVILLE, Fla.) — Jacksonville University announced on Wednesday that former Senator and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney will deliver its spring commencement address this April.

“We are delighted to offer our students the opportunity to hear from one of the leading figures in industry and public service of the past three decades,” university President Tim Cost said in a statement. “Gov. Romney has established an outstanding track record of accomplishments, and is sure to offer insight and inspiration to our campus community.”

Commencement is scheduled for April 25.

Romney has said he is considering another presidential campaign in 2016.

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Mitt Romney to Give Commencement Address at Jacksonville University in April

ABC/ DONNA SVENNEVIK(JACKSONVILLE, Fla.) — Jacksonville University announced on Wednesday that former Senator and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney will deliver its spring commencement address this April.

“We are delighted to offer our students the opportunity to hear from one of the leading figures in industry and public service of the past three decades,” university President Tim Cost said in a statement. “Gov. Romney has established an outstanding track record of accomplishments, and is sure to offer insight and inspiration to our campus community.”

Commencement is scheduled for April 25.

Romney has said he is considering another presidential campaign in 2016.

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Drone Flies Into Capitol Hill Hearing

BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images(WASHINGTON) — This may be a congressional first — a drone flying overhead in a House committee room.

The House Committee on Science, Space and Technology held a hearing Wednesday in the Rayburn House Office Building on the research and development of unmanned aircraft systems. One of the witnesses, Colin Guinn, CRO of 3D Robotics, brought a Parrot Bebop Drone, a $499 device weighing just over one pound, for a demonstration.

The red-and-black drone buzzed around the side of the committee room, flying in place for over a minute while Guinn testified. The drone did not get near any of the lawmakers or fly over anyone’s head, much to the disappointment of Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas, chairman of the committee.

“I was hoping you’d fly it over the whole room instead of one place,” Smith said.

“You said, ‘No haircuts,’” Guinn answered.

Ahead of the short drone flight, Smith said the demonstration may have been the first of its kind and noted the committee had to obtain special permission to have a drone flying in the committee room.

“The rules are still pretty strict,” Smith said.

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Drone Flies Into Capitol Hill Hearing

BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images(WASHINGTON) — This may be a congressional first — a drone flying overhead in a House committee room.

The House Committee on Science, Space and Technology held a hearing Wednesday in the Rayburn House Office Building on the research and development of unmanned aircraft systems. One of the witnesses, Colin Guinn, CRO of 3D Robotics, brought a Parrot Bebop Drone, a $499 device weighing just over one pound, for a demonstration.

The red-and-black drone buzzed around the side of the committee room, flying in place for over a minute while Guinn testified. The drone did not get near any of the lawmakers or fly over anyone’s head, much to the disappointment of Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas, chairman of the committee.

“I was hoping you’d fly it over the whole room instead of one place,” Smith said.

“You said, ‘No haircuts,’” Guinn answered.

Ahead of the short drone flight, Smith said the demonstration may have been the first of its kind and noted the committee had to obtain special permission to have a drone flying in the committee room.

“The rules are still pretty strict,” Smith said.

World News Videos | ABC World News

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Drone Flies Into Capitol Hill Hearing

BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images(WASHINGTON) — This may be a congressional first — a drone flying overhead in a House committee room.

The House Committee on Science, Space and Technology held a hearing Wednesday in the Rayburn House Office Building on the research and development of unmanned aircraft systems. One of the witnesses, Colin Guinn, CRO of 3D Robotics, brought a Parrot Bebop Drone, a $499 device weighing just over one pound, for a demonstration.

The red-and-black drone buzzed around the side of the committee room, flying in place for over a minute while Guinn testified. The drone did not get near any of the lawmakers or fly over anyone’s head, much to the disappointment of Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas, chairman of the committee.

“I was hoping you’d fly it over the whole room instead of one place,” Smith said.

“You said, ‘No haircuts,’” Guinn answered.

Ahead of the short drone flight, Smith said the demonstration may have been the first of its kind and noted the committee had to obtain special permission to have a drone flying in the committee room.

“The rules are still pretty strict,” Smith said.

World News Videos | ABC World News

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