A look at farm phosphorus in the Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast for 2024

By Dusty Sonnenberg, CCA, Field Leader, a project of the Ohio Soybean Council and Soybean Check-off (Adapted from NCCOS, Richard Stumpf)

For the last decade, each spring the attention of residents along the coast of the Western Lake Erie Basin, and other lake stakeholders curiously await the prediction of the Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast. The Western Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Early Season Prediction was released in early May. The projection is a joint effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) along with the National Center for Water Quality Research at Heidelberg University.

What is the initial projection?

In the summer of 2024, Western Lake Erie is projected to experience a moderate harmful algal bloom (HAB), according to the first 2024 Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Early Season Projection issued by NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS).

Models from this spring indicate a likely bloom severity between 4.5 and 7.5 (a moderate bloom is closer to a severity of 5).… Continue reading