A look at the corn and soybean balance sheet

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC 

The first look at the 2024 balance sheet for corn and soybeans was released May 10. There were few surprises in the supply projections. The acres estimate was the same as the March planting intentions report and the yield projection didn’t change from the February economic forum.

Corn

The biggest highlight was that old crop corn demand increased by 100 million bushels. Half of the increase was from ethanol and the other half was from exports.

That still leaves a 2-billion-bushel carryout for the old crop and 2.1 billion for the new crop. Realistically, that is too much corn to support current prices. This likely suggests there is a significant weather premium already built into the market. This past winter when the market thought there were 2.2 billion bushels of carryout, corn futures fell to $3.99, which ultimately helped increase demand. For U.S. corn to stay competitive globally, futures can’t rally a lot more, unless there are significant planting issues.… Continue reading