The path for Republicans to capture the House majority

As Tuesday melded into Wednesday, the man who aims to be the next speaker of the House of Representatives declared victory in the midterm elections.

“It is clear that we are going to take the House back,” House Republican Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy proclaimed late on Election Night. “We will be in the majority and [House Speaker] Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority.”

While the odds are in their favor, as of Wednesday afternoon, the House GOP had not grasped the majority and the balance of power in the chamber was still in play.

After Republicans lost control of the White House and Senate majority in the 2020 election cycle, the House GOP defied expectations and took a big bite out of the Democrats’ majority. They needed a net gain of just five seats in the 435-member chamber in this week’s midterms to win back the majority they lost amid a blue wave in 2018.

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House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., speaks at an event Wednesday morning, Nov. 9, 2022, in Washington.
(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

As of midday on Wednesday, the Republicans have won more than 200 seats, double digits ahead of Democrats in the House balance of power. The GOP needs 218 seats to win the majority.

There were 13 uncalled races left on the list of toss-up House races on the Fox News Power Rankings, with the Democrats winning eight of those districts and the Republicans capturing four, according to race calls from the Associated Press.

Here’s one pathway for Republicans to secure the House majority

Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District — It’s been 16 years since a Republican has won the district, but GOP nominee George Logan may break the losing streak.

“I believe that Connecticut Republicans have a better message,” the former two-term state senator, small business owner and frontman in a Jimi Hendrix tribute band told Fox News in a recent interview.

Logan, who is Black, is challenging two-term Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes in a House district that covers parts of the western half of Connecticut in a race that’s still too close to call. Hayes, who made history as the first Black woman and Black Democrat to represent Connecticut in Congress, won both her 2018 election and her 2020 re-election by double digits.

Republican Congressional nominee George Logan marches in a parade in Newtown, Connecticut, on Sept. 5, 2022.
(Fox News)

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District — Rep. Jared Golden has been one of the House Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbents during the 2022 cycle. And as the vote counting continues in the largest House district east of the Mississippi River, Golden is hanging on to a razor-thin lead over a Republican he defeated in 2018 to win election to Congress — former Rep. Bruce Poliquin. While Maine is blue, it’s one of two states to split its electoral votes by congressional district, and then-President Donald Trump carried the district in his 2020 re-election defeat.

New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District — Rep. Yvette Herrell, a realtor and first-term lawmaker who was the first Republican Native woman elected to Congress, is fighting for her political life. The only GOP member of New Mexico’s congressional delegation is being challenged by Democratic Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez in a race that remains too close to call.

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Washington’s 8th Congressional DistrictDemocratic Rep. Kim Schrier is locked in a close contest with Republican challenger Matt Larkin in a district that includes parts of suburban Seattle and rural areas.