40-man deadline: Which prospects are getting roster spots?

For all 30 Major League teams, some of the biggest decisions of the offseason must be made by the Nov. 19 deadline for setting their 40-man rosters. Any player not added to their organization’s roster by then will become eligible to be selected by another organization in the Rule 5 Draft, which is set for Wednesday, Dec. 11, in Dallas.

Players first signed at age 18 or younger must be added to 40-man rosters within five seasons or they become eligible to be drafted by other organizations through the Rule 5 process. Players signed at 19 years or older have to be protected within four seasons. Clubs pay $100,000 to select a player in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft. If that player doesn’t stay on the 26-man roster for the full season, he must be offered back to his former team for $50,000.

For this year, that means an international prospect or high school Draft pick signed in 2020 at age 18 or younger must be protected. A college player — or 19-year-old high school player — taken in the 2021 Draft is in the same position.

As it stands, there are four players on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects list who need to be protected or become exposed to the Rule 5 Draft:

Owen Caissie, OF, Cubs (No. 34)Colson Montgomery, SS, White Sox (No. 37)Tink Hence, RHP, Cardinals (No. 61)Zac Veen, OF, Rockies (No. 83)

It will be surprising if any of those prospects did not end up on 40-man rosters by the deadline. Over the past nine seasons, all 94 Top 100 prospects who were eligible got roster spots:

This year, 96 players on organizational Top 30 lists must be added or exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. Below is the year-by-year percentage of prospects ranked on organizational Top 30 lists added to 40-man rosters:

2023: 54 of 152 (35.5 percent)2022: 76 of 176 (43.2 percent)2021: 80 of 169 (47.3 percent)2020: 86 of 174 (49.4 percent)2019: 87 of 149 (58.3 percent)2018: 71 of 149 (47.6 percent)2017: 85 of 153 (55.6 percent)2016: 84 of 144 (58.0 percent)2015: 75 of 156 (48.0 percent)

If you noticed this year’s Rule 5 eligible pool is a bit smaller than usual, you’re not wrong. There is a reason for that. Fewer players were signed in 2020 than is typical due to the unusual circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic. And then in 2021 the Draft was truncated to 20 rounds, down from 40 before the pandemic. Fewer prospects overall were signed during that period compared to years prior, leading to the smaller crop of Rule 5 eligible prospects this winter.

Here’s a list of all 30 teams’ Top 30 prospects who need to be protected to avoid being exposed to the Rule 5 Draft:

Arizona DiamondbacksChristian Cerda, C (No. 29)

AthleticsDenzel Clarke, OF (No. 10)Gunnar Hoglund, RHP (No. 12)Cooper Bowman, 2B (No. 20)Brayan Buelvas, OF (No. 26)

Atlanta BravesLuis De Avila, LHP (No. 15)

Baltimore OriolesJuan Nuñez, RHP (No. 8)Brandon Young, RHP (No. 19)Alex Pham, RHP (No. 25)

Boston Red SoxJhostynxon Garcia, OF (No. 12)Allan Castro, OF (No. 19)Hunter Dobbins, RHP (No. 21)Yordanny Monegro, RHP (No. 25)Blaze Jordan, 3B/1B (No. 26)

Chicago CubsOwen Caissie, OF (No. 2/MLB No. 34)Pablo Aliendo, C (No. 13)Christian Franklin, OF (No. 22)Benjamin Cowles, SS (No. 29)

Chicago White SoxColson Montgomery, SS (No. 3/MLB No. 37)Wilfred Veras, 3B (No. 25)Juan Carela, RHP (No. 26)

Cincinnati RedsNo players.

Cleveland GuardiansDoug Nikhazy, LHP (No. 24)Petey Halpin, OF (No. 26)Ryan Webb, LHP (No. 27)Franco Aleman, RHP (No. 30)

Colorado RockiesZac Veen, OF (No. 3/MLB No. 83)Warming Bernabel, 3B (No. 24)Yujanyer Herrera, RHP (No. 29)

Detroit TigersJoseph Montalvo, RHP (No. 16)Justice Bigbie, OF (No. 21)Roberto Campos, OF (No. 25)Lael Lockhart, LHP (No. 26)Gage Workman, SS (No. 30)

Houston AstrosColton Gordon, LHP (No. 11)Alimber Santa, RHP (No. 16)Rhett Kouba, RHP (No. 24)Colin Barber, OF (No. 30)

Kansas City RoyalsNoah Cameron, LHP (No. 12)Chandler Champlain, RHP (No. 16)Luinder Avila, RHP (No. 26)Tyson Guerrero, LHP (No. 27)Eric Cerantola, RHP (No. 29)

Los Angeles AngelsMatthew Lugo, OF (No. 12)Ryan Costeiu, RHP (No. 15)Adrian Placencia, SS (No. 22)

Los Angeles DodgersAustin Gauthier, SS (No. 24)

Miami MarlinsDeyvison De Los Santos, 1B (No. 4)Jared Serna, SS (No. 10)Dax Fulton, LHP (No. 26)

Milwaukee BrewersLogan Henderson, RHP (No. 11)Coleman Crow, RHP (No. 30)

Minnesota TwinsMarco Raya, RHP (No. 5)Ricardo Olivar, C (No. 15)Kala’i Rosario, RF (No. 19)Rubel Cespedes, INF (No. 22)

New York MetsDom Hamel, RHP (No. 15)Mike Vasil, RHP (No. 18)

New York YankeesZach Messinger, RHP (No. 17)

Philadelphia PhilliesMick Abel, RHP (No. 6)Jean Cabrera, RHP (No. 13)Griff McGarry, RHP (No. 21)Christian McGowan, RHP (No. 22)Carlos De La Cruz, OF (No. 25)Moisés Chace, RHP (No. 26)

Pittsburgh PiratesOmar Alfonzo, C (No. 26)

San Diego PadresHenry Baez, RHP (No. 7)Brandon Valenzuela, C (No. 12)Jagger Haynes, LHP (No. 20)Jayvien Sandridge, LHP (No. 21)Omar Cruz, LHP (No. 22)Ryan Bergert, RHP (No. 25)

Seattle MarinersTaylor Dollard, RHP (No. 21)Jimmy Joyce, RHP (No. 23)Carlos Jimenez, OF (No. 28)

San Francisco GiantsAeverson Arteaga, SS (No. 11)Carson Seymour, RHP (No. 23)Onil Perez, C (No. 28)

St. Louis CardinalsTink Hence, RHP (No. 2/MLB No. 61)Tekoah Roby, RHP (No. 6)Ian Bedell, RHP (No. 19)Darlin Saladin, RHP (No. 21)

Tampa Bay RaysIan Seymour, LHP (No. 17)Joe Rock, LHP (No. 22)

Texas RangersEmiliano Teodo, RHP (No. 6)Winston Santos, RHP (No. 8)Aidan Curry, RHP (No. 19)Josh Stephan, RHP (No. 25)Dane Acker, RHP (No. 27)

Toronto Blue JaysEddinson Paulino, 3B (No. 17)Dahian Santos, RHP (No. 20)Yohendrick Pinango, OF (No. 21)Dasan Brown, OF (No. 23)Victor Arias, OF (No. 28)

Washington NationalsRobert Hassell III, OF (No. 13)Andry Lara, RHP (No. 17)Kevin Made, SS (No. 25)