Latest mock draft: NCAA upsets shake up first-round scouting plans
Teams will have a little less time than expected to scout several of the top college players in the 2026 Draft. A rash of upsets in NCAA regional play last weekend eliminated seven of the 16 top national seeds, including No. 1 UCLA and No. 2 Georgia Tech. No Bruins and Yellow Jackets means no Roch Cholowsky or Vahn Lackey, two of the three players in serious contention for the White Sox to select with the first overall choice.
Seven other possible first-rounders from teams favored to advance had their seasons end: Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress, Texas A&M second baseman Chris Hacopian, Florida right-hander Liam Peterson, UCLA righty Logan Reddemann, Texas A&M teammates Caden Sorrell and Gavin Grahovac and Florida State left-hander Wes Mendes. Reddemann missed his sixth consecutive start with what the Bruins termed “arm fatigue” but pro clubs believe is a more serious ailment. Nine other first-round candidates who weren’t on top seeds also were knocked out, most notably UC Santa Barbara righty Jackson Flora, the best pitcher available.
2026 MLB Draft presented by Nippon Express
July 11-12:
This week’s Super Regionals still feature six players generating first-round buzz, including the player who may have the highest ceiling yet remains one of the biggest enigmas of them all: Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron. Mississippi State third baseman Ace Reese, Mississippi right-hander Cade Townsend, Texas outfielder Aiden Robbins, Southern California left-hander Mason Edwards and Georgia catcher Daniel Jackson are still alive as well.
While the first five picks in this mock draft are the same as they were in my initial projection three weeks ago, by no means does that mean they’re locked into place. There still are two clear tiers atop the Draft: Cholowsky, Fort Worth (Texas) Christian HS shortstop Grady Emerson and Lackey at one level; and then Gulliver Prep (Miami) shortstop Jacob Lombard, Flora and Oak Grove HS (Hattiesburg, Miss.) outfielder Eric Booth Jr. ahead of everyone else.
We’re extending our projections through the first 40 selections so we can cover the top choices for the five teams (Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Dodgers) that moved down 10 spots out of the first round because they exceeded the second surcharge threshold of the competitive-balance tax in 2025. Our recently updated and expanded MLB Pipeline Draft Top 200 Prospects list includes extensive scouting reports, grades and video for all players mentioned below.
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• Top 100 prospects | Stats | Video | Podcast | Complete coverage
1. White Sox: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA (No. 1)
You know all that talk about Cholowsky being the most predetermined No. 1 overall choice since Adley Rutschmann seven years ago? He’s still very talented and has the highest floor of any player available, but a lot of teams believe Emerson has more upside and is a better prospect at the same stage of their careers. Lackey’s superlative performance (.407/.529/.790, 20 homers, 15 steals) has narrowed the gap between him and Cholowsky as well. While White Sox scouts may prefer Emerson, other clubs think upper management will dictate a college selection.
2. Rays: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth (Texas) Christian HS (No. 2)
Cholowsky could be the top choice for each of the first four clubs. If he’s gone, the Rays will decide between Emerson and Lackey while mulling their perpetual hunt for catching since bypassing Buster Posey with the No. 1 overall selection in 2008. There are a lot of rumors that Kentucky shortstop Tyler Bell could cut a deal to go in the first five, including with Tampa Bay, the team that selected him in the second round out of an Illinois high school two years ago.
3. Twins: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech (No. 3)
The Twins’ decision could be as simple of taking whichever of Cholowsky, Emerson and Lackey remains, though they’re doing their due diligence on other players. Flora might be the next name on their board.
4. Giants: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep, Miami (No. 4)
The Giants openly covet Cholowsky but don’t have a realistic hope of floating him down, even after adding another $3,270,200 to their bonus pool by acquiring the No. 29 pick from the Guardians in the Patrick Bailey trade. If the big three all are unavailable, San Francisco appears to prefer Lombard over Flora and Booth in the next tier of talent.
5. Pirates: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (No. 5)
After nabbing Paul Skenes, Konnor Griffin and Seth Hernandez with their previous three first-rounders, could the Pirates get the highest-ceilinged player for the fourth straight Draft? Lebron will be available but Flora is the most likely option, followed by Booth and perhaps Lombard.
6. Royals: Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS, Hattiesburg, Miss. (No. 6)
The Royals will sort through the consensus top six players, at least one of whom will get to them, along with left-hander Gio Rojas, the consensus top prep pitcher. Burress would be the high-floor option (with upside as well) or they could get really bold by taking California high schooler Jared Grindlinger and letting him play both ways. Most teams that would nab Grindlinger in the first round prefer him as a hitter, though Kansas City likes him more as a pitcher.
7. Orioles: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech (No. 7)
Having one of Lombard or Booth fall to them would make the Orioles’ choice easier. Burress is the third-best college position player in most clubs’ minds and an easy fit here. This also could be the ceiling for Lebron, who fits the combination of high upside with bat questions that they’ve tapped into several times.
That makes the top seven prospects going in the top seven picks in this projection, in the exact same order we ranked them on the Draft Top 200. The Draft never plays out that way, but these are the guesses that make the most sense for now.
8. Athletics: Chris Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&M (No. 10)
The A’s are concentrating on college hitters such as Hacopian (whom many clubs believe has the best bat in the crop), Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick and Burress.
9. Braves: Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla. (No. 8)
In three of the last four Drafts, the Braves have taken a high school player, have selected a pitcher and have cut a discount (not always all at the same time). They could marry those strategies and get a below-slot deal with Rojas, saving money to spend on their next choice at No. 26 or later in the Draft. They’re linked to Burress, Hacopian, Helfrick and Bell as well.
10. Rockies: Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas (No. 13)
It’s unclear if the Rockies would prefer a hitter or pitcher with the first of three picks in the top 38, but the focus with this choice appears to be on collegians. If it’s a bat, it could be Burress, Hacopian, Helfrick or Bell. If it’s an arm, the possibilities are Coastal Carolina right-hander Cameron Flukey, Peterson and Arkansas left-hander Hunter Dietz.
11. Nationals: Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS (No. 18)
Other teams believe the Nationals are the strongest possibility to pop Grindlinger in the top 20 selections. Other names associated with Washington include Burress, Hacopian, Lebron and Virginia outfielder A.J. Gracia.
12. Angels: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina (No. 11)
Every Angels first-rounder this decade has been a collegian on an express route to the big leagues, and that streak should continue this year. Candidates include Flukey and Peterson as pitchers and Louisiana State outfielder Derek Curiel, Bell and Reese as hitters. The Angels are known to love South Carolina prep left-hander Carson Bolemon and could seek a deep discount with him at No. 12.
13. Cardinals: Derek Curiel, OF, Louisiana State (No. 12)
The Cardinals are tied mostly to college bats. If Helfrick, Burress and Hacopian are gone as expected, that could leave them looking at Curiel and Gracia. If they opt for a pitcher, Flukey would be the best bet.
14. Marlins: Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State (No. 21)
The Marlins loaded up on college hitters with their top five selections last July and look to go that route again in the first round. Of the bats likely to make it to 14, Curiel and Reese may be the frontrunners ahead of Bell, Gracia and Texas Christian outfielder Sawyer Strosnider. Don’t rule out college arms such as Flukey, Peterson and Tennessee right-hander Tegan Kuhns, however, and Grindlinger could slide in here as well.
15. Diamondbacks: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida (No. 14)
Unlike a lot of clubs, the Diamondbacks are associated with every demographic: college hitters (Hacopian, Curiel) and pitchers (Flukey, Peterson, Dietz, Arizona State left-hander Cole Carlon), high school bats (Georgia outfielder Trevor Condon) and arms (Rojas).
16. Rangers: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky (No. 20)
This feels close to Bell’s floor and Robbins’ ceiling. The Rangers also could be tempted by Lebron’s upside if he lasts this long.
17. Astros: Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama (No. 9)
Lebron ranked as the best prospect in the 2026 Draft 15 months ago, so this could be a coup for the Astros. They’re mentioned with several college bats, including Gracia, Bell, Strosnider and Jackson. One of those guys could get to Houston’s next pick at No. 28.
18. Reds: Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah HS, Woodstock, Ga. (No. 22)
The Reds repeatedly are connected to Bell, Lebron, Condon and Dietz. That’s three of the four demographics, and they also could pursue prep left-handers Brody Bumila and Bolemon.
19. Guardians: Sawyer Strosnider, OF, Texas Christian (No. 16)
After spending their 2025 first-rounder on a tooled-up Lone Star State college outfielder who slumped in his Draft year in Jace LaViolette, the Guardians could do so again with Strosnider. They might not pass on Reese and could be intrigued by Grindlinger.
20. Red Sox: Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Episcopal HS, Greenville, S.C. (No. 38)
Another team covering all four demographics, the Red Sox could opt for college bats (Reese, Strosnider) or arms (Dietz), as well as high school hitters (Lowrance) and pitchers (Bumila). Maybe two-way players (Grindlinger) too.
21. Padres: Brody Bumila, LHP, Bishop Feehan HS, Attleboro, Mass. (No. 19)
As a 6-foot-9 high school left-hander with a fastball that hits 100 mph and features intriguing metrics, Bumila is exactly the type of high-risk/high-reward prospect the Padres pursue. It’s hard to imagine Rojas or Lebron getting past San Diego.
22. Tigers: Archer Horn, SS, St. Ignatius Prep, San Francisco (No. 67)
Detroit’s last five first-rounders or supplemental first-rounders have been prep left-handed hitters with at least a chance to play up the middle. Condon fits that bill, as does Lowrance. So do Horn, Cole Prosek, Landon Thome, James Clark and Connor Comeau. Another high schooler, shortstop Aiden Ruiz, is a switch-hitter who’s the best defender in the Draft.
23. Cubs: Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas (No. 15)
The Cubs’ big league team and farm system both could use an infusion of arms, which could lead to college options such as Peterson, Dietz, Kuhns or Townsend.
24. Mariners: Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee (No. 24)
The Mariners are targeting the same college arms as the Cubs, in addition to Carlon. If Condon lasted longer than expected, Seattle could grab him.
25. Brewers: Cade Townsend, RHP, Mississippi (No. 27)
Unless someone unexpected drops in their lap, the Brewers could keep the college pitching run going with the arms mentioned with the Cubs and Mariners, along with Edwards. Prosek has one of the best swings in the Draft and is the nephew of Milwaukee third-base coach Matt Erickson.
Supplemental first round
26. Braves: A.J. Gracia, OF, Virginia (No. 17)
27. Mets: Aiden Robbins, OF, Texas (No. 30)
28. Astros: Daniel Jackson, C, Georgia (No. 39)
29. Giants: Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian HS, Simpsonville, S.C. (No. 23)
30. Royals: Caden Sorrell, OF, Texas A&M (No. 29)
31. Diamondbacks: Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State (No. 25)
32. Cardinals: Mason Edwards, LHP, Southern California (No. 34)
33. Rays: Cole Prosek, 3B/C, Magnolia Heights HS, Senatobia, Miss. (No. 33)
34. Pirates: Taj Marchand, SS, James Island HS, Charleston, S.C. (No. 46)
35. Yankees: Zion Rose, OF, Louisville (No. 31)
36. Phillies: Aiden Ruiz, SS, The Stony Brook (N.Y.) School (No. 36)
37. Rockies: Gavin Grahovac, 1B, Texas A&M (No. 32)