Reviewing past performance

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC

Today is the official end of the 2023 marketing year. Therefore, it is a good time to review past performance and consider any changes I want to make going forward.

As I have stated previously, my preferred marketing strategy performs best during declining and range-bound markets. However, this does mean I will sometimes miss out during market rallies caused by unpredictable events like 2010 and 2020. So, how has this strategy performed over time?

Reviewing my strategies’ long-term performance

The best strategies work 75% of the time while the worst strategies work about 25% of the time. To evaluate my performance, I use the national average farm sale price published by the USDA in the WASDE reports as a guide.

This price is compiled by the USDA and is based on the cash values the average farmer is receiving. It appears as if this price is very close to a zero-basis value, meaning that the prices received by the farmer are very close to what futures are trading on these average farmer sales in the USDA number.… Continue reading