Hindsight: Evaluating our top prospect projections from ’23

Two years ago at this time, we did our best prospect soothsayer imitations by predicting who the No. 1 prospect in each organization would be heading into the 2025 season.

Now it’s time to hold ourselves accountable. How’d we do?

We’ll start out by noting that 18 of this year’s No. 1 prospects weren’t in their organization two years ago. We’re good, but we’re not that good at predicting the future, so we’re not penalizing ourselves for guessing the 2024 Draft first-rounders who are now sitting atop their team’s lists (six of them). Or that Roki Sasaki would post and sign with the Dodgers. Or that Jackson Holliday would have graduated already. Or who might get traded (three).

Out of the existing pool of 12 prospects, then, we got four exactly right: Jackson Jobe, Jeferson Quero, Noah Schultz and Carson Williams. A dozen of those we predicted two years ago are currently in the Top 100, so we weren’t far off there. And last we checked, a .333 average gets you into the Hall of Fame.

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Blue Jays
Who we picked: Brandon Barriera, LHP
Who it is: Arjun Nimmala, SS (MLB No. 87)
Toronto selected Barriera 23rd overall in 2022, the same year it was helping develop 2021 third-rounder and fellow southpaw Ricky Tiedemann into a breakout arm. The younger left-hander showed three above-average pitches as an amateur but just hasn’t gotten going in the pros with 21 2/3 career innings. He underwent a hybrid Tommy John/internal brace surgery on his left elbow after only one start last season, and 2024 first-rounder Nimmala has seized the top spot instead.

Orioles
Who we picked: Jackson Holliday, 2B
Who it is: Samuel Basallo, C/1B (MLB No. 13)
Who knew Holliday would have graduated by now? At the time, he was the No. 1 pick in the 2022 Draft who was coming off a brief, but successful, pro debut. In 2023, Holliday raced up the ladder, reaching Triple-A Norfolk. And while he hasn’t gotten locked in at the big league level yet, he’ll still only be 21 for all of the 2025 season and certainly would have been No. 1 on the O’s list if he hadn’t gotten past prospect status.

Rays
Who we picked: Carson Williams, SS
Who it is: Williams (MLB No. 9)
This was right on target. Williams, a 2021 first-rounder, was coming off a solid first full season in which he clubbed 19 homers with Single-A Charleston, strengthening the belief that his power could play quickly on the pro side. Much of the rest of the profile remains true too. Williams is still a stellar defender at shortstop, and while his strikeout rates have improved slightly, they’re still higher than you’d typically like for a premium prospect. The difference: We’ve now seen Williams be the same player for two more years and at higher levels, and at 21 years old, he’s on the verge of the Majors.

Red Sox
Who we picked: Miguel Bleis, OF
Who it is: Roman Anthony, OF (MLB No. 2)
Signed for $1.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2021, Bleis still offers the upside of a potential 25-25 center fielder, though his progress was slowed when he subluxated his left shoulder on a swing in May 2023 and required season-ending surgery. He slashed .220/.303/.354 with a system-best 38 steals in 95 games between two Class A stops last year while continuing to showcase the best all-around tools in the system.

Yankees
Who we picked: Spencer Jones, OF
Who it is: Jasson Domínguez, OF (MLB No. 21)
With his combination of big raw power and unusual athleticism for a 6-foot-6, 235-pounder, Jones ranks as one of the Yankees’ better prospects — just not the best. The 2022 first-rounder from Vanderbilt slashed .259/.336/.452 with 17 homers and 25 steals in 122 games with Double-A Somerset, but he also ranked second in the Minors with 200 strikeouts and 10th with a 36.8 percent strikeout rate.

Guardians
Who we picked: Chase DeLauter, OF (MLB No. 36)
Who it is: Travis Bazzana, 2B (MLB No. 10)
He trails only 2024 No. 1 overall pick Bazzana in our Guardians rankings, and DeLauter probably would have graduated to Cleveland by now if not for persistent injuries to his left foot, which he broke at James Madison during his Draft year in 2022. The only first-round pick in school history, he combines size (6-foot-3, 235 pounds), athleticism, the ability to hit for both average and power and plate discipline like few players can. He has slashed .317/.387/.517 in two pro seasons and .313/.417/.522 in two trips to the Arizona Fall League.

Royals
Who we picked: Gavin Cross, OF
Who it is: Jac Caglianone, 1B (MLB No. 22)
The 2022 ninth overall pick showed five-tool potential at Virginia Tech but hasn’t truly taken off in pro ball yet, in part because of a bout with Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever late in 2023. His 2024 season with Double-A Northwest Arkansas was a solid bounce back (.261/.342/.428, 15 homers, 30 steals), but concerns about his ability to make contact against non-fastballs remain. Even so, it could have made for a fun debate between Cross and 2024 sixth overall pick Caglianone this year had everything gone right developmentally for the former.

Tigers
Who we picked: Jackson Jobe, RHP
Who it is: Jobe (MLB No. 5)
Jobe’s first full season in 2022 didn’t go quite as expected (3.84 ERA, 1.28 WHIP in 77 1/3 innings), but to his credit, he’s long stood out metrically. Beyond that, he also is a constant tinkerer, one who improved his four-seam fastball shape over the years in pro ball and added a plus cutter that he used plenty during his first run in the Majors last fall. Even with Detroit adding big talents Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle in the 2023 Draft, Jobe reigns supreme at the top of the system as a potential ace alongside Tarik Skubal.

Twins
Who we picked: Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF (MLB No. 37)
Who it is: Walker Jenkins, OF (MLB No. 3)
We’re going to take this as a “win” since Rodriguez is still in the Top 40 overall and No. 2 on the Twins’ list now. His offensive potential is as exciting as just about anyone, with a career .932 OPS heading into the 2025 season, with a ton of power and the potential to stick in center field. The only thing that’s slowed him down has been the injury bug, as he’s yet to play 100 games in one season.

White Sox
Who we picked: Noah Schultz, LHP
Who it is: Schultz (MLB No. 16)
The best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, Schultz has proven more advanced than expected when the White Sox drafted him in the first round out of a suburban Chicago high school in 2022. He owns a wipeout slider that peaks at 88 mph, a mid-90s fastball and a solid upper-80s changeup. He earned Southern League Pitcher of the Year accolades by posting a 1.48 ERA and a 73/17 K/BB ratio in 61 innings following a promotion to Double-A Birmingham last May at age 20.

Angels
Who we picked: Edgar Quero, C (MLB No. 66)
Who it is: Christian Moore, 2B (MLB No. 68)
It’s very hard to predict the Angels’ top prospect because, more often than not, their top Draft picks graduate to the big leagues in under two years. Put this one in the correct column, even though Quero got dealt to the White Sox in July 2023. He might be No. 6 on the top-heavy White Sox list now, but his placement in the Top 100 would have him atop the Angels’ list were he still with them after leading all Minor League catchers his age or younger in OPS (.829) and wRC+ (139) in 2024.

Astros
Who we picked: Drew Gilbert, OF
Who it is: Cam Smith, 3B (MLB No. 59)
Gilbert has spent time on our Top 100 Prospects list, both before and after the Astros sent him to the Mets in a trade for Justin Verlander in August 2023. He can do a little bit of everything as a center fielder who flashes four solid or better tools, as well as some sneaky pop. He was hampered by a right hamstring injury in his first full season in New York’s system, slashing just .215/.313/.393 with 10 homers in 56 games with Triple-A Syracuse.

Athletics
Who we picked: Luis Morales, RHP
Who it is: Jacob Wilson, SS (MLB No. 31)
Morales was the top-ranked pitcher on the international market in 2023 and the A’s got him for $3 million. He still very much has the raw stuff to make him a top prospect, with a fastball that averaged 96 mph and touched 99, the ability to really spin his breaking stuff and miss bats with it, and even feel for a changeup. But Morales’ command still needs work and he hasn’t quite dominated the lower levels like you’d expect, plus he got dinged up a little bit last year. Still just 22 for most of this season, it could all click at any moment.

Mariners
Who we picked: Harry Ford, C (MLB No. 65)
Who it is: Colt Emerson, SS/3B (MLB No. 20)
Ford has become a little bit polarizing in that he hasn’t really put together the kind of huge statistical season some would like to see from a top prospect (though he did finish with a 119 wRC+ with Double-A Arkansas last year), and some question his overall receiving long-term. That said, he’s still firmly in the Top 100, is No. 4 on a deep Mariners list, has always been one of the youngest players at each level, will be 22 for the 2025 season and still has 20-20 potential.

Rangers
Who we picked: Brock Porter, RHP
Who it is: Sebastian Walcott, SS/3B (MLB No. 17)
Though Porter was MLB Pipeline’s top-rated high school pitcher in the 2022 Draft, the Rangers were able to float him to their second pick (109th overall) and paid him a fourth-round-record $3.7 million. His stuff regressed and his control completely disintegrated in 2024, when he walked 24 and hit nine batters in 19 1/3 innings between Rookie ball and High-A Hickory.

Braves
Who we picked: Ambioris Tavarez, SS
Who it is: Drake Baldwin, C (MLB No. 63)
We rolled the dice a little on this one in picking Tavarez, who had signed for $1.5 million in January 2021 with considerable raw tools to tap into. It hasn’t gone well for the infielder, first because the Braves didn’t have a DSL team in 2021, so his pro debut was delayed until 2022 and then missing time because of thoracic outlet surgery on his left shoulder. He’s still only 21, so he could right the ship, but he played only 50 games last year after a pitch broke his wrist, and he has a career OPS of just .649, a reason why he’s fallen off the Braves’ Top 30 entirely.

Marlins
Who we picked: Yiddi Cappe, SS
Who it is: Thomas White, LHP (MLB No. 41)
The Marlins signed Cappe for $3.5 million amid Carlos Correa comparisons in 2021, but the Cuban has struggled to add strength to his 6-foot-3 frame since turning pro. He lost 2 1/2 months last summer when a pitch hit his left hand, and he slashed .224/.297/.281 in 66 games (mostly in High-A) while playing third and second base.

Mets
Who we picked: Kevin Parada, C
Who it is: Brandon Sproat, RHP (MLB No. 46)
Scouts were big fans of Parada’s offensive potential coming out of Georgia Tech. The 2022 11th overall pick entered pro ball after setting a school record with 26 homers as a Draft-eligible sophomore, and he looked like someone who could hit for a high average at a premium position. But the rigors of catching can make development at the position hit or miss, and Parada has managed just a career .717 OPS while still being a work-in-progress behind the plate. Entering his age-23 season, he’s a candidate to slide off the Mets list until the bat looks more consistently like its Yellow Jackets version.

Nationals
Who we picked: Elijah Green, OF
Who it is: Dylan Crews, OF (MLB No. 4)
There will be days when you can still see why Green was the fifth overall pick in 2022. His raw power rivals anyone else’s in the Washington system, and with plus-plus speed, he can fly on the basepaths and in the field. But his overall hit tool remains one of the roughest in the Minors after two years of Single-A ball, and his inability to make consistent contact has held him back from closing in on an astronomically high ceiling. On the optimistic side, he’ll still be only 21 for the entire 2025 season, and the Nats have a quality outfielder at the top now anyways in 2023 first-rounder Crews.

Phillies
Who we picked: Justin Crawford, OF (MLB No. 64)
Who it is: Andrew Painter, RHP (MLB No. 8)
Not too far off here, as the Phillies’ first-rounder in 2022 is a solid Top 100 guy coming in at No. 3 on the club’s list. The two-time Futures Gamer still needs to work on driving the ball more and decreasing his ground-ball rate, but his top-of-the-scale speed has helped him swipe 40-plus bags in each of his two full seasons and he’s hit .316 with a .371 OBP in his career while reaching Double-A last year at age 20.

Brewers
Who we picked: Jeferson Quero, C
Who it is: Quero (MLB No. 47)
Even season-ending shoulder surgery and an all-world breakout from Jesus Made didn’t supplant Quero from atop the Milwaukee rankings heading into this spring. The 22-year-old backstop is one of the most defensively sound catchers in prospectdom, and while his arm strength might be tested in recovery, it has a long history of limiting opposing running games. Quero only needs to be average offensively (something he’s capable of) to become a Top 10 catcher in the Majors because the glove is so good.

Cardinals
Who we picked: Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
Who it is: JJ Wetherholt, SS (MLB No. 23)
We thought Tink Hence might have graduated by now, but injuries have kept that from being the case. Recent Draft picks JJ Wetherholt and Quinn Mathews weren’t in the organization yet either. Hjerpe has dealt with his own elbow issues in recent years (loose bodies in 2023, inflammation in 2024) but is still highly thought of in the St. Louis system with sidearm mechanics that make his fastball, slider, changeup and cutter tough to square up. He could rise to more national prominence with more consistent innings in 2025. Then again, he might be in St. Louis already by then.

Cubs
Who we picked: Cristian Hernandez, SS
Who it is: Matt Shaw, INF (MLB No. 19)
Hernandez elicited physical comparisons to Alex Rodriguez and Manny Machado as an amateur in the Dominican Republic, with some scouts rating him as the best prospect in the 2020-21 international class. That’s a lot to live up to, as is a $3 million bonus, but he still shows solid raw power and speed and made strides with his plate discipline in 2024. He slashed .261/.374/.381 with 44 steals in 118 games between two Class A stops at age 20.

Pirates
Who we picked: Termarr Johnson, 2B/SS (MLB No. 83)
Who it is: Bubba Chandler, RHP (MLB No. 15)
Chandler has made a huge leap forward to become one of the best pitching prospects in the game. At the same time, Johnson, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2022 Draft, has had a bit of an inconsistent rise up the Pirates’ ladder. Thought to be one of the best pure prep hitters in recent memory, no one would have predicted that Johnson would have a career .239 average and 23.6 percent K rate. On the flip side of that coin is that he’s still only 20 and reached Double-A last year, finishing with a combined 121 wRC+, 15 homers and 22 steals, and now has a career 18.6 percent walk rate.

Reds
Who we picked: Edwin Arroyo, SS (MLB No. 92)
Who it is: Chase Burns, RHP (MLB No. 26)
At the time, we were excited to see what Arroyo would do in his first full season with the Reds after coming over in the 2022 Trade Deadline deal for Luis Castillo. And he had a solid 2023 season, reaching Double-A, but his progress was halted with a torn left labrum that forced him out for the entirety of the 2024 season. He did return for some Arizona Fall League action and could restart his ascent up this list with a healthy 2025.

D-backs
Who we picked: Druw Jones, OF
Who it is: Jordan Lawlar, SS (MLB No. 11)
Many saw Jones as the top talent in the 2022 Draft as a surefire center fielder who already had some pop and could grow into more as he filled out his 6-foot-4 frame. His speed and defense continue to draw praise two years later, but the overall swing is a concern. Jones is much more prone to pushing the ball the opposite way than pulling it with authority, and the hit tool caused him to drop out of our Top 100. With the correct adjustments, he could push his way right back in during his age-21 campaign.

Dodgers
Who we picked: Dalton Rushing, C/OF (MLB No. 30)
Who it is: Roki Sasaki, RHP (MLB No. 1)
Rushing was the Dodgers’ top prospect until they signed Japanese sensation Sasaki in January. He’s a well-rounded hitter who continues to get better behind the plate with underrated athleticism and solid arm strength. Named the top prospect in the Double-A Texas League, as well as the Dodgers’ Minor League Player of the Year in 2024, he tied for second among Minor League catchers with 26 homers while slashing .271/.384/.512 in 114 games between Double-A and Triple-A.

Giants
Who we picked: Aeverson Arteaga, SS
Who it is: Bryce Eldridge, 1B (MLB No. 24)
Arteaga’s athleticism and defensive ability earned him a $1 million bonus out of Venezuela in 2019, and they continue to stand out. He has shown more sneaky pop than expected but also has an overly aggressive approach that detracts from his performance at the plate. He slashed just .209/.308/.319 in 24 games last season (mostly in High-A) after missing most of the first four months recovering from thoracic outlet surgery.

Padres
Who we picked: Dylan Lesko, RHP
Who it is: Leodalis De Vries, SS (MLB No. 18)
Lesko underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2022, two months before the Padres selected him 15th overall in the Draft. There was hope his stuff and command would return without issue — leading to future prominent prospect rankings — but that hasn’t been the case, especially in the latter department. Lesko posted a 6.46 ERA with 52 walks in 69 2/3 innings for High-A Fort Wayne last year, making him a buy-low candidate when Tampa Bay acquired him with two others in a deal for Jason Adam last July. Top international signees De Vries and Ethan Salas reign at the top of the system now.

Rockies
Who we picked: Adael Amador, SS
Who it is: Chase Dollander, RHP (MLB No. 25)
After walking more than he struck out and posting a 128 wRC+ as a teenager in his full-season debut with Single-A Fresno in 2022, we thought Amador’s bat was definitely going to play. We looked smart when he reached Double-A in 2023 after our prediction and finished with a combined .875 OPS and 134 wRC+. That progress halted with a rough 2024 season, one that was interrupted by a roster-crunch necessitated big league debut. He did have an OPS of .833 from Aug. 1 on and will be just 22, with the hopes that the humble pie he was served providing motivation for a rebound this season.