Latest 1st round mock draft is LIVE and there’s movement near the top
The college and high school seasons are starting to wind down, yet there’s still not much clarity in a muddled Draft.
The Nationals own the No. 1 pick and are considering a pool of 7-8 candidates. That group is believed to include the top two high school position players (shortstops Ethan Holliday and Eli Willits), the best prep arm (right-hander Seth Hernandez), the cream of the college pitching crop (lefties Kade Anderson of Louisiana State, Jamie Arnold of Florida State and Liam Doyle of Tennessee; righty Kyson Witherspoon of Oklahoma) and the best college bat (Aiva Arquette).
Along with shortstop Billy Carlson, Hernandez’s teammate at Corona (Calif.) HS, that’s the consensus upper tier of talent. None has separated himself from the pack, which is why Washington and the clubs behind them still are sorting them out.
The biggest lock seems to be that Holliday will go to the Nationals — and become the second No. 1 overall choice in the family, following brother Jackson — or to the Rockies at No. 4 when the Draft commences on July 13 during All-Star Week in Atlanta.
MLB Pipeline’s recently updated Draft Top 200 includes detailed scouting reports, grades and video for all players mentioned below.
1. Nationals: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater (Okla.) HS (No. 1)
This likely will come down to a three-prospect race between Holliday, Hernandez and Anderson, the first three players on the Draft Top 200, and may finish in that order. The Nationals would be less reluctant than most clubs about making Hernandez the first high school righty ever selected No. 1.
2. Angels: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee (No. 9)
The Angels appear to be targeting college pitchers who could move quickly, and most clubs believe they’d like to do a discount deal to spread money to other choices. Doyle is the best option that fits both categories, while Anderson would be the pick based purely on talent. They haven’t ruled out Hernandez and have done a lot of work on prep shortstops such as JoJo Parker and Daniel Pierce, perhaps to try to slide them to their next selection at No. 47 (a fairly impossible dream).
3. Mariners: Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State (No. 3)
Though they’re also considering Hernandez, the Mariners are more apt to take one of the top four college arms and possibly Arquette. If Anderson is gone, Arnold might be Plan B.
4. Rockies: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State (No. 4)
The son of former Rockies All-Star Matt Holliday, Ethan won’t get past this choice. It’s unclear what the Rockies will do otherwise, as the club with the worst record in baseball could look for more immediate help with one of the top four college pitchers or Arquette, take the most talented player in the Draft (Hernandez) or grab the high schooler with the highest floor (Willits).
5. Cardinals: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS, Fort Cobb, Okla. (No. 5)
The Cardinals would like Holliday or one of the college southpaws, all of whom are off the board in this scenario. They could pivot to a high school shortstop in Willits or Carlson or the last remaining top-tier college arm in Witherspoon.
6. Pirates: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State (No. 6)
The Pirates will mull whichever upper-echelon options remain, with Holliday and Anderson the only ones who appear to have no chance to get to No. 6. This is probably Arquette’s floor, though Hernandez also could be very tempting.
7. Marlins: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 7)
Given the chance, the Marlins might pounce on Arquette but otherwise are all over high school shortstops, including Willits, Carlson, Parker and Steele Hall.
More from MLB Pipeline:
• Top 100 prospects | Stats | Video | Podcast | Complete coverage
8. Blue Jays: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma (No. 8)
The Blue Jays are one of the least likely teams in the top 10 to select Hernandez, so that would leave them with the other upper-tier talent still available. In this case, it’s Witherspoon. They also could wind up with Willits or Carlson if the first seven picks play out differently.
9. Reds: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 2)
This would be a great get for the Reds because Hernandez belongs much higher than this but has to deal with an industry skittish about spending early selections on high school righties. He could land with any of the clubs ahead of here except for the Cardinals and Blue Jays. If he’s gone, Cincinnati could turn to Witherspoon or a prep shortstop. This is the ceiling for Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette, who entered the season as the consensus top college bat but hit just .258 with a 25 percent strikeout rate.
10. White Sox: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS (No. 10)
Barring someone surprising falling in their laps, the White Sox seem destined for a prep shortstop. With Willits and Carlson gone, that still leaves them Parker, Hall, Kayson Cunningham and Daniel Pierce. If they want a college hitter, Tennessee second baseman Gavin Kilen could be their guy.
11. Athletics: Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona (No. 19)
College bats seem like the best bet for the A’s, who got almost instant big leaguers out of that demographic in the last two first rounds with Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz. Summerhill has some of the best all-around tools in the college class and his stock is on the rise. LaViolette, Kilen and Auburn outfielder Ike Irish also would make sense.
12. Rangers: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS, Hoschton, Ga. (No. 18)
Like the Marlins and White Sox ahead of them and the Rays two picks later, the Rangers are associated with all of the prep shortstops. They’d be choosing from the same mix Chicago would be looking at.
13. Giants: Ike Irish, OF/C, Auburn (No. 21)
The Giants also like a lot of the high school shortstops, but with that group mostly picked over at this point, a college position player such as Irish, Wake Forest shortstop Marek Houston or LaViolette makes sense. Perhaps the best combination of hitting ability, power and discipline in the college crop, Irish is climbing boards. This also might be the high-water mark for high-ceiling prep left-hander Kruz Schoolcraft.
14. Rays: Kayson Cunningham, SS/2B, Johnson HS, San Antonio (No. 11)
Another prep shortstop shopper with Cunningham and Hall still available in this scenario, the Rays also could look at other high school bats such as Gavin Fien and Josh Hammond. Schoolcraft could be tempting too.
15. Red Sox: Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS, Temecula, Calif. (No. 26)
The Red Sox wouldn’t mind a shot at Witherspoon, though that’s getting increasingly unlikely with how well he has pitched down the stretch. Fien fits the mold of the high school hitters Boston takes, while fellow prep third baseman Xavier Neyens and several of the college bats could slide in here.
16. Twins: Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee (No. 17)
The Twins are monitoring several college hitters (Kilen, Summerhill, Irish, LaViolette), but they also could dip into the high school shortstop pool with Hall or Pierce.
17. Cubs: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (No. 14)
Bremner entered the year rivaling Arnold as the best college arm available, got knocked around early in the first half of the college season, then posted double-digit strikeouts in six of his final seven outings. His name doesn’t get mentioned much in front of the Cubs, who need more pitching prospects. They also got quick returns on spending their last two first-rounders on polished college hitters Matt Shaw and Cam Smith, so they could be attracted to Kilen, Summerhill and Irish.
18. Diamondbacks: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS, Trussville, Ala. (No. 13)
A lot of high schoolers get mentioned with the Diamondbacks, including Hall, second baseman/outfielder Sean Gamble, outfielder Slater de Brun, Fien and Hammond.
19. Orioles: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon (Wash.) HS (No. 27)
The Orioles repeatedly roll the dice on power-over-hit guys, and Neyens ranks with Holliday as the most intriguing models in the high school class. LaViolette is a classic college example who would follow in the tradition of recent Baltimore first-rounders such as Heston Kjerstad, Dylan Beavers and Vance Honeycutt.
20. Brewers: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M (No. 15)
This is likely the floor for LaViolette, whose combination of size, power and athleticism still intrigues a lot of clubs. The Brewers also could go for any of the college bats mentioned above as well as others such as Indiana outfielder Devin Taylor, Wake Forest outfielder Brooks Conrad and Tennessee corner infielder Andrew Fischer.
21. Astros: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas (No. 22)
The Astros have exercised their last four first-rounders on offensive-minded players at up-the-middle positions: Korey Lee, Drew Gilbert, Brice Matthews and Walker Janek. Southeastern Conference Player of the Year Aloy fits that profile and has more defensive value than all of them.
22. Braves: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest (No. 12)
Both Aloy and Houston could go in the teens. The latter is the best defensive shortstop in the college crop and looked like a top-10 pick before slumping in April, though he has started to heat up again. The Braves feel like Irish’s floor if he’s still available. They’ve taken pitchers with their previous six first-rounders, which could point to Schoolcraft or Southern Mississippi right-hander JB Middleton.
23. Royals: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS, Portland, Ore. (No. 16)
Everyone in the industry knows of Royals scouting director Brian Bridges’ affinity for prep pitchers, so Schoolcraft is an obvious target. Kansas City is the earliest team tied to high school shortstop Tate Southisene and also could go for other prep position players such as Hall, Fien, Hammond or de Brun.
24. Tigers: Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian Academy, High Point, N.C. (No. 30)
The Tigers are scouting several of the same prepsters mentioned with the Royals after using their last two first-rounders on toolsy high schoolers Max Clark and Bryce Rainer.
25. Padres: Slater de Brun, OF, Summit HS, Bend, Ore. (No. 25)
The Padres love high school lefties as much as anyone, so Schoolcraft seems like a no-brainer if he gets here. If not, it will be another high-ceiling prepster such as Neyens or de Brun.
26. Phillies: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina (No. 20)
Though the Phillies have popped high schoolers with their first-round choice in each of the last five years, the best catcher in the Draft could entice them to end that streak. But Neyens, de Brun or perhaps right-hander Matthew Fisher could lead them to extend it.
27. Guardians: Andrew Fischer, 1B/3B, Tennessee (No. 29)
There are a number of polished college hitters who could appeal to the Guardians, including Fischer, Conrad, Coastal Carolina catcher Caden Bodine and Clemson outfielder Cam Cannarella.
The Mets, Yankees and Dodgers all had their top pick dropped 10 spots as a penalty for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the competitive-balance tax. So that we don’t leave anyone out, let’s try to project those selections: