Postseason FAQ: What’s next for Guardians?

CLEVELAND – On the eve of Opening Day, the Guardians owned a 33.4 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs, as some other teams across the Majors sat in the 90s. It was mostly based on the fact that the team was returning a large chunk of the roster that put together a sub-.500 record in 2023 and now had a first-time manager at the helm.

The Guardians loved it.

The doubt has fueled Cleveland’s roster since Spring Training and it led to the big moment on Thursday afternoon, when a 3-2, extra-innings win over the Twins at Progressive Field led to a champagne bath in the clubhouse, as the Guardians clinched a playoff berth.

“We’re in a great position,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “We control our destiny. The players did this. The players drove the bus. I want to celebrate it, too.”

The fun is only getting started. Here’s everything you need to know as the Guardians prepare for the postseason:

What could the postseason roster look like?C: Bo Naylor, Austin Hedges1B: Josh Naylor2B: Andrés Giménez3B: José RamírezSS: Brayan RocchioOF: Steven Kwan, Lane Thomas, Jhonkensy Noel, Will BrennanDH: David Fry, Kyle ManzardoUTL: Daniel SchneemannSP: Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd, Ben Lively, Gavin WilliamsRP: Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Pedro Avila, Eli Morgan, Nick Sandlin, Andrew Walters, Joey Cantillo

What’s still left to accomplish?Cleveland is still looking to clinch the AL Central division and a first-round bye. The Guardians sit 6 1/2 games ahead of the Royals in the division, meaning the soonest they could take the division title would be Saturday against the Cardinals.

After that, all eyes turn to the Astros. The Guardians need to have one of the two best records among the three division-winning teams to skip the Wild Card Series by earning a first-round bye. Right now, those three division winners are set up to be the Yankees, Guardians and Astros. If Cleveland doesn’t catch New York for the No. 1 seed, it needs to stay ahead of Houston. Right now, the Guardians are five games ahead of the Astros in the loss column, but the two teams are set for a three-game series next weekend to close out the regular season.

Who needs to get healthy?Kwan is No. 1 on the list. The Guardians’ left fielder has been dealing with some lower back inflammation, which landed him on the 10-day IL this week. He’s been ramping up his baseball activity and has started to hit in the cages, so Cleveland remains optimistic that he’ll only need 10 days before returning to the lineup. Even if he hasn’t been as hot in the second half of the season as he was in the first, the Guardians need his defense in left field and his patience and contact ability in the leadoff spot.

Then, there’s Alex Cobb. He’s only made three starts this season because of a myriad of injuries. He’s now working his way back from a blister on his pitching hand. Will he be ready to go before October? Do the Guardians see him working his way back into the rotation since those three starts looked solid? Will they limit him to a bullpen role instead? There are still a lot of questions to answer.

For guys who have been on the 60-day or 10/15-day injured lists this year and have served the full stint of their required number of days to be out of action (like Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephen, Sam Hentges and James Karinchak), they can be replaced by anyone who was in the Guardians’ organization prior to September.

So, someone like Walters can be added to a playoff roster even though he wasn’t on the 40-man during the final month of the regular season.

Rotation plansWell, the Guardians may still have to figure this out. We know Tanner Bibee will get the ball in Game 1. From there, it’s uncertain.

Boyd has been great up until his most recent outing. Lively has been great all season but has shown signs of fatigue over the last few weeks. Williams has been great at times, but has also struggled in others. Cobb still needs to prove that he’s healthy.

But what about Cantillo? Two weeks ago, he was just a spot starter, filling in for Cobb. But over his last three starts, he’s looked utterly dominant. He’s inexperienced, but does that matter for a club that’s tried to ride the hot hand all season? Can he work his way into the conversation?

What are the other position battles to watch?

1. Brennan vs. Straw

Do you take Brennan’s bat or Straw’s defense and speed? The Guardians saw on Wednesday night what a late-game, pinch-hit plate appearance can result in if they stick with Brennan. But Straw is definitely an upgrade if they’d use him as a defensive replacement in the late innings or as a pinch-runner when the team desperately needs a run to score.

2. Straw vs. fifth starter

Maybe the Guardians just carry 12 pitchers in their first round of the playoffs since it won’t be a seven-game series. Straw could be the fifth man on the bench and the Guardians wouldn’t need to add one of their starters to the bullpen for extra depth. It’s beneficial to have speed on the bench, but Cleveland has also suffered enough short starts this season to know it can never have too many options in the ‘pen.

3. Last spot in the ‘pen

In the case that the Guardians do carry 13 pitchers, is Cobb the man who moves to the ‘pen? Does Cantillo go to the bullpen instead of making the rotation? Is Triston McKenzie in consideration, since the Guardians have been having him work in relief at Triple-A Columbus to be an option for them if they need him? They have choices if they want to get creative.

Who could be the first-round matchup?Let’s assume the Guardians will clinch the division since they’re inching closer to that mark. If they do that, but do not secure the first-round bye, they will likely host the Tigers or Twins in a three-game Wild Card Series, depending on who earns that final playoff spot. The Guardians went 10-3 against the Twins this year and 7-6 against the Tigers.

If the Guardians are the No. 2 seed, meaning they have the second-best record of the three division winners, they would host the winner of the No. 3 seed (the division winner with the worst record of the three) and No. 6 seed (the lowest wild card winner). If the season ended today, that would be the winner of the Twins and the Astros. The Guardians have gone 1-2 against the Astros so far this season, but still have a three-game series against them remaining.

The final scenario would be the Guardians earning the No. 1 seed, which means they would have to pass the Yankees to have the best record in the American League. That would mean they would play the winner of the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds (the top two Wild Card teams). If the season ended today, that would be the Orioles and the Royals. The Guardians went 4-3 against the Orioles and 5-8 against the Royals.